Reliability Analysis based on Non-Homogeneous Continuous-Time Markov Modeling with Application to Repairable Pumps of a Power Plant
Date Issued
2016
Date
2016
Author(s)
Huang, Tai-Wei
Abstract
To avoid equipment breakdown that may result in power outage, equipment maintenance is very important. However, maintenance always accompanies with cost and operating performance. Finding a balance between reducing risk of power outage and increasing cost through maintenance becomes an important issue for power plant owners. To reduce the risk of power outage, increase the availability of equipment and decrease the cost of maintenance, a repair related analytical model by non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is constructed in this thesis. In the past, people always assumed that failure rate and repair rate do not change with time when they constructed continuous-time Markov chain models. However, the failure rate and repair rate may change with time in actual situation. To consider a maintenance process which accords with the actual situation, we add not only the effect of time but also environmental factors including failure rate and repair rate into consideration to describe uncertainties of the process. Moreover, in traditional analyses, people usually emphasized the cycle of preventive maintenance as a decision variable. In this research, we consider not only the cycle of preventive maintenance but also the number of spare parts. By this way, the cycle of preventive maintenance and number of spare parts that increases the availability of equipment and decreases the cost of maintenance can be found. Since it is difficult to obtain a closed-form analytical solution of transition probability in a non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain, we propose a method to find the numerical solution. In the end, the failure and repair data of pumps of a domestic power plant are applied into the proposed model. An optimal solution in consideration of the life cycle cost under a certain availability constraint is found through the model.
Subjects
repairable model
non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain
proportional hazards model
availability
simulation
Type
thesis
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