The effect of preventing subclinical transmission on the containment of COVID-19: Mathematical modeling and experience in Taiwan
Journal
Contemporary Clinical Trials
Journal Volume
96
Date Issued
2020
Author(s)
Tsou, H.-H.
Cheng, Y.-C.
Yuan, H.-Y.
Hsu, Y.-T.
Wu, H.-Y.
Lee, F.-J.
Hsiung, C.A.
Sytwu, H.-K.
Wu, S.-I.
Shih, S.-M.
Wen, T.-H.
Abstract
The control strategies preventing subclinical transmission differed among countries. A stochastic transmission model was used to assess the potential effectiveness of control strategies at controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Three strategies included lack of prevention of subclinical transmission (Strategy A), partial prevention using testing with different accuracy (Strategy B) and complete prevention by isolating all at-risk people (Strategy C, Taiwan policy). The high probability of containing COVID-19 in Strategy C is observed in different scenario, had varied in the number of initial cases (5, 20, and 40), the reproduction number (1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3.5), the proportion of at-risk people being investigated (40%, 60%, 80%, to 90%), the delay from symptom onset to isolation (long and short), and the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset (<1%, 15%, and 30%). Strategy C achieved probability of 80% under advantageous scenario, such as low number of initial cases and high coverage of epidemiological investigation but Strategy B and C rarely achieved that of 60%. Considering the unsatisfactory accuracy of current testing and insufficient resources, isolation of all at-risk people, as adopted in Taiwan, could be an effective alternative.
SDGs
Publisher
Elsevier Inc.
Type
journal article