Testing Causality between GDP and Motorcycle/Car
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Wu, Chia-Wen
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The number of mobile vehicles in Taiwan has been increasing for many years especially motorcycles. The trend of using motorcycles for private communication also has been discovered in many other Asian countries like India, Thailand, Vietnam
… and so on. However, with increasing numbers of mobile vehicles, the negative impacts which took are more serious. In order to solve these problems, we have already paid a lot of costs. At the same time, according to the past studies, the ownership of mobile vehicles and growth of the usage are related to the increasing of GDP. The main objective of this study is to establish transportation policies by researching the relationship between mobile vehicles and ecnomy of Japan and Taiwan.
On the other hand, the model according to the traditional econometric analytic method which is established based on prior theory is very difficult and not has convincingness. Since the model is unable to reflect to the real characteristic of the data. On the basis of above-mentioned reason, the Granger causality and forecast error variance decomposition techniques were applied on 1952-2005 data for Taiwan and Japan to examine cointegration and causality between “GDP and the number of registered motorcycles” and “GDP and the number of registered cars”.
The results show that the causality between GDP and mobile vehicles（motorcycle and car）is “from the number of registered motorcycle to GDP” and “from GDP to the number to registered car” in Taiwan. As for Japan, the results are “from the number of registered motorcycle to GDP” and “the independence relationship between GDP and the number of registered car”. Further, utilize the way of impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition to find out the mutual explanation abilities between each variable.
Subjects
單根檢定
共整合
Granger因果關係
GDP
小客車登記數、機車登記數
ADF test
Cointegration
Causality
car
motorcycle
Type
thesis
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