A Comparison of Closed and Opened Wisdom of Crowds: Using Epidemic Prediction Markets
Date Issued
2012
Date
2012
Author(s)
Liaw, Yun
Abstract
In this thesis, we compared the prediction performance of opened wisdom of crowds and closed wisdom of crowds in three different disease activities in Taiwan from March 2010 to October 2010. We used the prediction results coming from a group of healthcare workers and public health professionals participating in the closed prediction market to represent the closed wisdom of crowds. In the other hand, we fit the past search query frequency data of terms that related to the disease from Google with the historic disease activity data from Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Taiwan to train the linear regression models, and use these linear regression models to generate the prediction results that represents the opened public wisdom of crowds. We also tuned the “time lag” and “term number” to improve prediction of opened wisdom of crowds. In addition to these two approaches, we incorporated the historic average as our comparison baseline.
The prediction results are been compared in three different cases: 1.) patient number of severe complicated influenza (流感重症病患病例數), 2.) proportion of enterovirus patients (腸病毒病患比率), and 3.) proportion of parainfluenza patients (類流感病患比率). In each case, we used the average absolute error as the main metric to compare their prediction performances, while the correlations of coefficients are discussed. The results are shown in each case. The overall results showed that closed wisdom of crowds performs the best among three methods, the opened wisdom of crowds is the second, and the historic average is the worst.
Subjects
Prediction market
Wisdom of crowds
Disease Surveillance
Query logs
SDGs
Type
thesis
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