A Scenario Analysis on the Industry Structure and Strategy of Electric Scooter Industry

Due to global warming and severe environmental pollution, governments and corporations around the world are striving to invent environmental-friendly electric vehicles. In January 2015, Gogoro introduced its newest product, Smartscooter®, in CES (Consumer Electronics Show). With its special design, battery swapping infrastructure and unique business model, Gogoro attempts to change the existing game rule and affects competitors’ strategies accordingly. Therefore, this thesis will undertake a scenario analysis to portray the dynamic change of electric scooter industry after Gogoro was unveiled, and propose useful strategies for the intended players to meet future challenges. This paper analyzes the industry structure of electric scooter industry based on Michael Porter''s Five Forces Model, Value Net, and Scenario Analysis Method of Stanford Research Institute. Based on the industry analysis, we discovered variable factors that affect industry developments. Thereafter, we categorized these factors into different groups, and constructed four potential scenarios with varied factors combinations. According to the industry and scenario analysis, we found out that whether the battery technology is the core factor that would directly determines the future development of this industry, and the best scenario for the corporations would be “Strategic Alliance.” Therefore, the best strategy for current players in the industry is to cooperate with different firms in upstream and downstream of industry value chain. By consolidating the resources, these players could have bigger bargaining power to the government, the consumers and other players outside of the alliance.