An Application of the Real Option Method to Capacity Planning of Semiconductor Manufacturing
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Chen, Yorng-Feng
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The semiconductor manufacturing industry can be prominently characterized by intense competition, high capacity investment cost, rapid technology advancement and uncertain demand. Process technologies and demand are the two major sources of uncertainties so that the balance between demand and supply is hard to achieve. Because of high capacity investment cost, any mistake in capacity strategy will damage the corporation’s long-term competitiveness. There are many methods for capacity strategy planning, such as stochastic programming, optimal control, and real option method. The real option method is suitable for high uncertain industries. Hence, this thesis focuses on how a company can apply the real option method to its capacity planning, and industry data of average selling price and manufacturing costs are utilized in the analysis. This paper first describes the competition state of the industry by presenting the trends of average selling price, materials and labor cost, operating expenses, and capacity cost of representative firms in the industry. In the second part, capacity planning is analyzed by using experimental design and statistical methods under various scenarios to find a best way for application of the real option method.
Subjects
半導體製造
實質選擇權法
產能規劃
Semiconductor Manufacturing
Real Option Method
Capacity Planning
Type
thesis