Revisiting the effects of high-speed railway transfers in the early covid-19 cross-province transmission in mainland china
Journal
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Journal Volume
18
Journal Issue
12
Date Issued
2021
Author(s)
Chan C.-H
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic that was reported at the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China, and was rapidly disseminated to all provinces in around one month. The study aims to assess the changes in intercity railway passenger transport on the early spatial transmission of COVID-19 in mainland China. Examining the role of railway transport properties in disease transmission could help quantify the spatial spillover effects of large-scale travel restriction interventions. This study used daily high-speed railway schedule data to compare the differences in city-level network properties (destination arrival and transfer service) before and after the Wuhan city lockdown in the early stages of the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in mainland China. Bayesian multivariate regression was used to examine the association between structural changes in the railway origin-destination network and the incidence of COVID-19 cases. Our results show that the provinces with rising transfer activities after the Wuhan city lockdown had more confirmed COVID-19 cases, but changes in destination arrival did not have significant effects. The regions with increasing transfer activities were located in provinces neighboring Hubei in the widthwise and longitudinal directions. These results indicate that transfer activities enhance interpersonal transmission probability and could be a crucial risk factor for increasing epidemic severity after the Wuhan city lockdown. The destinations of railway passengers might not be affected by the Wuhan city lockdown, but their itinerary routes could be changed due to the replacement of an important transfer hub (Wuhan city) in the Chinese railway transportation network. As a result, transfer services in the high-speed rail network could explain why the provinces surrounded by Hubei had a higher number of confirmed COVID-19 cases than other provinces. ? 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Subjects
COVID-19; disease transmission; high-speed train; railway transport; spatial distribution; spillover effect; viral disease; China; Coronavirus
Other Subjects
COVID-19; disease transmission; high-speed train; railway transport; spatial distribution; spillover effect; viral disease; Article; betweenness centrality; China; coronavirus disease 2019; cross-sectional study; disease severity; disease transmission; gross national product; health care cost; human; incidence; k nearest neighbor; life expectancy; lockdown; principal component analysis; railway; risk factor; socioeconomics; spatial analysis; traffic and transport; Bayes theorem; China; city; communicable disease control; epidemiology; China; Coronavirus; Bayes Theorem; China; Cities; Communicable Disease Control; COVID-19; Humans; SARS-CoV-2
Type
journal article