Using stochastic risk assessment in setting information priorities for managing dioxin impact from a municipal waste incinerator
Resource
Chemosphere 48 (10): 1035-1040
Journal
Chemosphere
Journal Volume
48
Journal Issue
10
Pages
1035-1040
Date Issued
2002
Author(s)
Ma, Hwong-Wen
Abstract
The objectives of this study were to assess site-specific carcinogenic risk of incinerator-emitted dioxins in a manner reflecting pollutant transfer across multimedia and multi-pathways. The study used site-specific environmental and exposure information and combined the Monte Carlo method with multimedia modeling to produce probability distributions of risk estimates. The risk estimates were further categorized by contaminated environmental media and exposure pathways that are experienced by human receptors in order to pinpoint significant sources of risk. Rank correlation coefficients were also calculated along with the Monte Carlo sampling to identify key factors that influenced estimation of risk. The results showed that ingestion accounted for more than 90% of the total risk and that risk control on ingestion of eggs, aboveground vegetables, and poultry should receive priority. It was also found that variation of parameters with variability accounted for around 35% of the total risk variance, while uncertainty contributed to the remaining 65%. Intake rates of aboveground vegetables, eggs, and poultry were the key parameters with the largest contribution to variance. In addition, sufficient sampling and analysis of dioxin contents in eggs, aboveground vegetables, poultry, soil, and fruit should be performed to improve risk estimation because the variation in concentrations in these media accounted for the largest overall risk variance. Finally, focus should be placed on reduction of uncertainty associated with the risk estimation through ingestion of aboveground vegetables, eggs, poultry, fruit, and soil because the risk estimates associated with these exposure pathways had the largest variance. © 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
Subjects
Monte Carlo method; Multi-pathway exposure; PCDD; PCDF; Sensitivity; Uncertainty
Other Subjects
Monte Carlo methods; Multimedia systems; Probability distributions; Random processes; Risk assessment; Ingestion; Waste incineration; dioxin; carcinogen; dioxin; dioxin; incineration; industrial emission; municipal solid waste; PCDD; PCDF; pollution exposure; risk assessment; article; cancer risk; correlation coefficient; health hazard; incineration; Monte Carlo method; risk assessment; soil pollution; stochastic model; vegetable; waste disposal; animal; egg; food contamination; human; incineration; poultry; risk assessment; soil pollutant; waste disposal; Animals; Carcinogens; Dioxins; Eggs; Food Contamination; Humans; Incineration; Monte Carlo Method; Poultry; Refuse Disposal; Risk Assessment; Soil Pollutants; Vegetables
Type
journal article
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Loading...
Name
04.pdf
Size
77.85 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum
(MD5):bcbc317646267df23ba27804e343ac9f