Geographical Profiling Applied to Identification of Different Distance-decay Patterns and Spatial Prediction of Anchor Points for Serial Residential Burglars in Taipei
Date Issued
2012
Date
2012
Author(s)
Lin, Yu-Chun
Abstract
Purpose: Anchor points of criminals are the zones where an offender travels routinely, such as work, school, home or recreational areas. The incidence rate of residential burglary is very high but detection rate is relatively low in Taiwan. In order to increase detection rate, it is important to understand spatial behaviors and anchor points of residential burglars. However, the relationships between crime locations of serial residential burglars and anchor points remain unclear. Therefore, the objective of the study is to identify spatial patterns and predict anchor points of serial residential burglars for targeting smaller zones of further criminal investigation.
Methods: Geographical profiling is a criminal investigation methodology which is based on the theories of environmental criminology. Geographical characteristics and inter-relationships of serial criminal events are analyzed to determine the possible areas of offender residence. A total of 326 residential burglaries committed by 28 serial offenders were analyzed in this study. Journey-to-crime analysis (JTC) and Bayesian journey-to-crime analysis (BJTC) were used to determine the distance patterns between crime locations and residential areas of serial residential burglars and establish the probability maps for predicting criminal anchor points.
Results: The significant findings indicated that (1) the hotspots of residential burglaries committed by serial offenders were identified and the average length of journey-to-crime trips was 3.7 kilometers; (2) these crime trips showed significant distance-decay relationships and could be divided into two types. Distance decay of Type I occurred at more than 0.5 kilometers while Type II occurred at more than three kilometers; (3) BJTC used Origin-Destination matrix to incorporate the commuting patterns of an offender, therefore, the probability maps of anchor point prediction did not show concentric circles; (4) JTC made more highly accurate prediction of anchor points than BJTC. The prediction error rate of JTC was less then 1 %; (5) the accuracy of BJTC could be improved significantly when the model was adjusted by crime-related built environmental factors, such as the locations of police stations.
Conclusion: The study demonstrated that geographical profiling could be beneficial to predict the locations of anchor points of serial residential burglars in Taipei and differentiate distance-decay patterns of these crime trips. This study provides information valuable for the targeted delivery of crime investigation and prevention programs against residential burglaries.
Subjects
geographical profiling
anchor points of criminals
Journey-to-crime analysis
serial residential burglary
distance-decay relationship
SDGs
Type
thesis
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