The Impact of Political Succession in the CCP on Cross-Strait Relations: 1989-2012
Date Issued
2015
Date
2015
Author(s)
Chen, Kuan-Wu
Abstract
Although there has been plenty studies to discuss the impact of Taiwan presidential elections on cross-Strait relations, fewer studies concentrate on the effect of the domestic political factors of the mainland China on cross-Strait relations, especially the impact of political succession in the CCP. Therefore, to explore the impact of political succession in the CCP on cross-Strait relations, this master thesis focuses on the power position of two CCP general secretaries, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, and their responses to Taiwan’s stimuli. In the research structure, the CCP leader’s power position is the independent variable, which is divided into two periods: succession transition and succession consolidation. There are several indexes to evaluate the succession periods. The dependent variable is the intensity of the CCP leader’s responses to Taiwan’s stimuli. The author selects nineteen major events on cross-Strait relations during the period between 1989-2012, and also gives the grades to every events to speculate the intensity. The hypotheses are as follows: (1) the CCP leader in the transition period will reciprocate limitedly to Taiwan authority’s positive signals, and retaliate aggressively to Taiwan authority’s negative signals; (2) the CCP leader in the consolidation period will reciprocate actively to Taiwan authority’s positive signals, and retaliate limitedly to Taiwan authority’s negative signals.The study shows that the hypotheses are verified. The CCP leader in the transition period reciprocates limitedly to Taiwan’s positive signals due to lack of resource, and retaliates aggressively to Taiwan’s negative signals for lack of loyalty from the military. On the other side, the CCP leader in the consolidation period reciprocates actively because of full authority in the party, and retaliates limitedly because he already gets the loyalty from the military, not need to appease the military anymore. This article is a first systematic approach to study the impact between political succession in the CCP and its Taiwan policy, hoping to inspire further studies and to enrich the researches on cross-Strait relations in the future.
Subjects
cross-Strait relations
CCP
political succession
succession transition
succession consolidation
Type
thesis
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