Quantitative analysis of the likelihood of gene introgression from genetically modified crops into wild relatives-A study of stochastic model
Date Issued
2004
Date
2004
Author(s)
Yang, Shui-Mu
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Recently, due to the gradual increase of cultivation area of genetically modified crops, biologists turn to consider suitable mathematical models as a basis to evaluate the likelihood of gene introgression from genetically modified crops into wild relatives. This thesis provides a general model and apply it in GM crops to describe the competition between hybrid population and wild relative population.
Consider two species from the genera Brassica and the genera Gossypium, respectively. We use a simulation method to study the stochastic model for modelling the competition between hybrid population and wild relative population in a natural environment. We find that when hybridization rates are moderate and hybrids are fertile, the results are likely to lead to escape of transgenes into wild population. When gene introgression requires the spontaneous development of a polyploid, the likelihood of gene introgression is very low.This result coincide with that obtained from the deterministic model derived by Thompson et al.
For the stochastic model, an initial value might end in one of the three possible outcomes rather than a destined equilibrium as characterized by a deterministic model.
Subjects
決定式模型
平衡點
遺傳改造作物
隨機式模型
deterministic model
genetically modified crops
stochastic model
equilibrium point
Type
thesis
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