Performance Evaluation: Three Methods of Election Prediction on Election Day
Date Issued
2009
Date
2009
Author(s)
Ko, Ta-Yu
Abstract
This paper is intended as an investigation of election prediction, one of the most interesting topics by scholars. So far, related studies in Taiwan have been concentrated on the method of public opinion survey. However, under the law of election and recall, which prohibits publishing the result of survey during the ten days before Election Day, the method is limited substantially because public opinion are more easily manipulated in the last days of the campaign. To improve the accuracy of predictions, another method, prediction based on the Election Day, has proved its capability by empirical experience but lacks further research. Given the circumstances, the purpose of this paper is to explore the three methods available to the analyzer – political map, typical township or typical village, and exit polls- based on Election Day. Thus, according to the conception, inception and procedure used in these three main methods, we examine the performance of each prediction in terms of its accuracy, applicability and sample representativeness. Furthermore, we attempt to explain the reasons that cause different predictability and provide various solutions. The main finding of this paper is that the political map and exit polls, which incorporated sampling design and statistical methodology, proved to be effective in many aspects. Thus, the methods are capable of application in the future and worthy of further studies. In spite of the good performance of typical township and typical village methods in the prediction of elections, it is difficult to manipulate and design the whole procedure. Also, the outcome of typical village does not result from the consistency of population structure but from the representativeness of party support. For methodology, we suggest that it would be more precise and logical in the prediction with political maps when PPS sampling and estimation by the actual rate of ballot are adopted rather than systematic sampling and estimation by the average rate of ballot. Furthermore, we suggest that the exit poll ought to reach more than fifty samples for each poll to lower the sampling error. The execution of exit poll should under the regulation by law, which could draw on foreign legislation. A combination of the two methods would mean less manpower and resources devoted as the sampling design of political map could be introduced into the use of exit poll.
Subjects
election prediction
performance evaluation
political map
typical township
typical village
exit poll
Type
thesis
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