Simplex Projection and Simulated Annealing of Typhoon Wave Height Forecasting
Journal
Taiwan Water Conservancy=台灣水利期刊
Journal Volume
72
Journal Issue
4
Start Page
57
End Page
66
Date Issued
2024-01-01
Author(s)
Abstract
This study proposed a new prediction algorithm to forecast offshore significant wave heights collected from buoy stations during the typhoon warning period. The wave height and typhoon characteristic data served as the database to establish the input-to-output structure of the proposed forecasting model. The significant wave height is the main input parameter, and the remaining typhoon characteristics, such as the distance between the center of the typhoon and the buoy station, the central pressure of the typhoon, and the radius of the typhoon, are auxiliary parameters. The methodology, which includes the simple projection method, the convex combination, and a similarity index using the Euclidean distance, was developed to predict the value of the typhoon wave height in real time. Moreover, the simulated annealing method was used to find the optimal weight value for each model parameter to improve prediction results.
Subjects
Simplex projection
Simulated annealing
Wave height forecasting
Type
journal article