The Study of Forecasting Construction Schedule for Building Projects ─ Based on Cases of SRC Projects
Date Issued
2011
Date
2011
Author(s)
Lin, Ming-Chiao
Abstract
The construction schedule is always essential issue of building project. Schedule overrun brings about project cost overrun and many disputes. Duration and progress are two important subjects of schedule management or schedule control for construction project. Although the industry participants are aware of the importance of duration and progress in the construction phase of projects, it was observed that significant part of the construction contracts had not met the stipulated period and delay still generally occurred. The construction duration overrun and delay are problematic in the construction industry and generate much concern for a long time.
In engineering practice, most methods estimating project duration in the industry depend on the subjective skill and cognition of the estimators and planners rather than on objective assessment, or duration models taken to construct projects were only considered with the construction size as measured by the final cost. In this dissertation, two types of variables, project characteristic and uncertain external factor, are incorporated into the construction duration model for SRC building projects. Uncertain external factors, whether and change order never been quantified in existing models, are specially considered in the prediction model and sign out their significance. Furthermore, there is a fact that few data, emerging changes, uncertainties and uniqueness always exist in the construction project engineering environment. Forecasting S-curve progress by conventional statistical prediction methods require a large amount of data to build progress prediction model, and is difficultly to determine the model coefficients to form a sectional model for flexibly adapting any current construction situation. A novel construction progress prediction approach based on modified grey dynamic prediction model also is proposed in this dissertation. The progress prediction approach can timely reflect real progress growth trends across different construction stages for individual construction project. In these two developing processes, necessary diagnostics and tests have been adopted to examine the aptness of the two models before inference. And then, several practical cases are respectively taken to test the accuracy of two models proposed. Results show that the actually necessary construction duration for SRC building project is considerably closed to the duration predicted by the proposed mode, and the dynamic forecasting approach proposed to forecast construction progress during construction phase is able to get better prediction accuracy almost within 10 % whether typical S-curves or practical cases. It is concluded that whether the predictive duration model or forecasting construction progress approach proposed for SRC building projects could be applicable to practical construction projects with a reasonable reliability.
Subjects
SRC building project
Forecast
Grey dynamic prediction model
Type
thesis
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Loading...
Name
ntu-100-D93521019-1.pdf
Size
23.32 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum
(MD5):bd50c406206a488fbe3b498e10e16496