Applications of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation to uncertainty analysis of wetland model‘s parameter
Date Issued
2011
Date
2011
Author(s)
Liao, Lun-Wei
Abstract
Wetland is a kind of natural treatment that always follow the balance of ecosystem and respect the nature. Wetland researches concerned about the cleaning ability of westewater in the beginning, but the studies of the interaction inside the wetland system are increace a lot in these few years. Unfortunately, it is hardly to spread out the whole system of wetland in models. The complexity of model structure can effect the dimension of model parameters. With the variation of seasons, temperature, and spaces. The parameters will have an extremely influence of the model prediction. It is one of the factor of uncertainty sources. In many kinds of wetland model applications, system dynamic(SD) model could describe the transformation of wetland structure much more clearly, let the user could easily understand the wetland system and the parameters in SD model. This research applications the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation(GLUE) to uncertainty analysis of system dynamic wetland model‘s parameter. Hope to provide some informations for wetland researchs in the future.
The water quality data use in theis research are collected from the construct wetland in National Cheng Kung university, to analysis the wetland interactions and predicts the water quality changing about dissolve oxygen(DO), biochemical oxygen demand(BOD5), total nitrogen(TN), total suspended solid(TSS), and total phosphorous(TP). Through the model calibration and validation steps, to determine the results performance and the sensitivity parameters for the prediction of every nutrients. Then use the behavioral simulations of the divided groups to analysis the influence of uncertainty for the model predictions. According to the results, the system dynamic wetland model can already fit the water quality changing of construct wetland. If disturb the parameters at the same time, there were four parameters are more sensitive such as the carbon in the BOD(BODc), Arrhenius constant(θ1), the diameter of suspended solid(dss), and the phosphorous in the suspended solid(FacP/SS).when the value of BODC between 0.6 to 0.72、θ1 between 0.85 to 1.10、dss value is bigger than 4.95E-6 and the parameter value of dss and FacP/SS smaller than 3.5E-6 and 0.1313 that the performance are comparatively good. Finally, use the method of multi-objective analysis to find the better results of parameters. This research analysis the sensitivity of parameters for each nutrients and find the better parameter results for predict the water quality performance. Give more important informations to wetland construction and operation. Hope can help and expanding the applications for construct wetland.
Subjects
Uncertainty Analysis of Wetland Parameter
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation
System Dynamic Model
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Likelihood Function
Multi-Objective Analysis
SDGs
Type
thesis
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