兩岸不動產經營投資管理決策之比較研究-以上海、台北為例-
Date Issued
2004
Date
2004
Author(s)
蔡鎮宇
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The Taiwan real estate market on the basis of private ownership has been developed for forty to fifty years with economic growth. During this period, Taiwan real estate market experienced three main prosperous cycles. But after 1991, due to real estate market oversupply, economic growth slowdown and domestic and international circumstance factor influence, it still has been in the long time murky condition up to now. Traditional opinions of “Holding real estate means the symptom of wealth” and keeping real estate for appreciation are questionable for investors now.
The economic system of Mainland China has significant transformation since it had executed open policy in 1979. The real estate system still remains the land on the basis of public ownership, but the leasehold estates could be transferred after 1988. After that time, real estate in Mainland China becomes “the circulation commodity” which inspires the market development. It is the recent ten years that Mainland Chin real estate market has developed maturely and vigorously due to rapid economy growth. Above all, in the near future, the 2008 Olympic Games at Beijing and the 2010 World Exhibition at Shanghai will motivate the Mainland China economy and real estate market to grow faster. Especially for Shanghai, it will become the “shining pearl” in Mainland China and attract global investors’ sights.
On the analysis of current development trend, Shanghai real estate market is worth investing in the few years. But Investors should have more concern about the different real estate ownership and development stage from Taiwan and Mainland China, then you can have an more exact estimate and make a right investment decision. Based on the basic environment, industrial development and the key points of real estate investment decision-making of Taiwan and Mainland China, the project with case study approach of which selected Taipei and Shanghai office buildings as research objective makes practical investment analysis. The main purposes of project are as following:
1.To compare the current circumstance of real estate investment environment in Taiwan and Mainland China, describe the trend of the market development, then generalize those factors which affect the real estate market development.
2. To analyze the investment profit by means of case study which compares with the investment process, the fixed rental income and expected appreciation of real estate.
3. To consider the Taiwan and Mainland China real estate market and monetary market, and study the feasibility of real estate investment in above areas by using the modern financial analysis tools; also analyze the different investment decision-making and find out the key points for investors’reference.
The project makes four conclusions as followings:
1. Based on present Taiwan and Mainland China real estate market conditions and predicted development tendency, the Shanghai commercial real estate is a good choice of making investment in the short and middle term period if in the income approach point of view. But in the maturity of political and economic development, the stability of market trading and the estates value points of view, the Shanghai commercial real estate is more potentially risky and uncertain than Taipei. So the long-term investment profit of real estate in Taipei still cannot be negligent.
2. The reasons of the present Shanghai commercial real estate investment profit higher than Taipei are the lower real estate price and higher rental income. The case study of the project verifies the present investment value of Taiwan and Mainland China real estate. But the long- term investment profit in the above areas depends on the accurate estimate of real estate market development in the future.
3. Investors should estimate the marginal utility of the rate of return and mortgage rate, and also consider the tax shield when they make real estate investment by mortgage.
4. Long-term investors should carefully consider the local government policy, administrative rules, exchange rate risk and the estates value of real estate. These factors all sufficiently affect the investment profit.
Subjects
兩岸不動產投資
real estate in Mainland China and Taiwan
SDGs
Type
thesis