Heterogeneity Analysis on Word-of-Mouth Effecthe Case of American Movie
Date Issued
2008
Date
2008
Author(s)
Tseng, Yu-Ju
Abstract
Sales of innovative products for the successful enterprises accounts for more than 60% of total sales, therefore, new product development is the key to success for a company in the modern business world. Being limited by various non-quantifiable external environmental factors during the past, it was not easy to set up the science relation for sales amount prediction. But following Bass model’s development, the model which used to forecast life cycle of new products and sales is more stable. Most former research paper used durable goods as research object, but according to Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA, Motion Picture Association of America), the film industry in the global economy plays an important role, the film''s total box office revenue about 11 billion U.S. dollars, and the U.S. box office in recent years about 9 billion U.S. dollars. The film industry is a high potential market, therefore, it used the films which released in U.S. be research object. In recent years, there are more research related to film industry, but most of them used quality and quantity to measure word-of-mouth effect. This study added “the probability distribution of the evaluation of audience for the film in the first week” factor to measure word-of-mouth. The main analytical methods for the analysis model of this research are Bass Diffusion Model. In this research, the probability distribution of the evaluation of audience is added in the Bass Diffusion, as such, it is the purpose of this research to obtain optimal innovative product sales amount prediction model for providing a model example of scientific prediction to the industry.
Subjects
word-of-mouth effect
Bass diffusion model
Type
thesis
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