A Study of International Trade Situation on the Effect of Exports Changing on Taiwan’s Economy
Date Issued
2014
Date
2014
Author(s)
Lin, Chen-Jyun
Abstract
Taiwan is a small island nation in Southeast Asia, trade dependence up to 140 percentage. So its economy is quite vulnerable to the international situation affects. According to the study of GlobalPes’ FTA alarm, there are 12 trade agreements have a significant impact on Taiwan has signed over, including the US-Korea FTA and Korea-ASEAN FTA; besides, some agreements are discussed, including RCEP and China-Korea FTA. In the footsteps of Taiwan into the international comparison is relatively slow, and how the Government uses advantages of the culture and the geographical with China, and Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) as a springboard to make Taiwan into a role of the Asian region''s economy, is also concerned by the general public. This paper uses the data from AREMOS and TEJ in Taiwan to build a macroecnometric model which contains 89 equations, 89 endogenous variables and 31 exogenous variables with range from the first quarter of 1961 to the third quarter of 2013. And by the out-sample prediction, the range of GDP growth from 2014 to 2016 is 3.86%, 3.63% and 3.62%, separately. Moreover, the study also uses scenario analysis to concern other variation such as Taiwan''s exports to China, Taiwan’s exports to ASEAN and changes in foreign direct investment on Taiwan. By the simulation result, with signing the trade agreements to ASEAN and China, our exports will increase obviously. It will bring to enhance the domestic economy and higher GDP, but it also brings side effects such as inflation and exchange rate appreciation. On the other hand, if Taiwan’s free economic pilot zones succeeded in attracting foreign direct investment, the technology will have obvious help.
Subjects
export
direct investment
Macroeconometric model
scenario analysis
SDGs
Type
thesis
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