Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments
Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Journal Volume
7
Journal Issue
1
ISSN
2662-4435
Date Issued
2025-12-06
Author(s)
Screen, James A.
Audette, Alexandre
Blackport, Russell
Deser, Clara
England, Mark
Feldl, Nicole
Gervais, Melissa
Hay, Stephanie
Kushner, Paul J.
Msadek, Rym
Mudhar, Regan
Sigmond, Michael
Smith, Doug
Sun, Lantao
Yu, Hao
Abstract
Human-induced warming is amplified in the Arctic, but its causes and consequences are not precisely known. Here, we review scientific advances facilitated by the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Surface heat flux changes and feedbacks triggered by sea-ice loss are critical to explain the magnitude and seasonality of Arctic amplification. Tropospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice loss that are robust across models and separable from internal variability have been revealed, including local warming and moistening, equatorward shifts of the jet stream and storm track in the North Atlantic, and fewer and milder cold extremes over North America. Whilst generally small compared to simulated internal variability, the response to Arctic sea-ice loss comprises a non-negligible contribution to projected climate change. For example, Arctic sea-ice loss is essential to explain projected North Atlantic jet trends and their uncertainty. Model diversity in the simulated responses has provided pathways to observationally constrain the real-world response.
Subjects
Arctic
amplification
climate feedback
climate modeling
experiment
heat flux
jet stream
sea ice
storm track
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Type
journal article