Research on Estimation Platform Prototype for Trends in Housing Prices in Taipei

This study attempts to investigate the future trends of housing prices in the city of Taipei. Regarding each administrative district of Taipei from 2005 to 2015, though analysis has been done for the increasing or decreasing trend of average housing prices, no analysis has been implemented for the long-term trends, nor an in-depth assessment for each administrative district of Taipei. The public lacks a simple and clear method to estimate and determine housing prices. Based on a complete and detailed collection of statistical data from ‘My Housing’ magazine, a monthly publication recognized by industry peers and deemed as the most reliable by homebuyers, as well as KD, RSI, or MACD technical index analysis theories that have been widely used to analyze stock market trends, housing market data are imported and analyzed. Reasonable parameters are then calculated on the basis of real estate industry “quarters” while using formulas of the technical index analysis methods mentioned above. This generates KD, RSI and MACD moving average results for the complete decade (2005-2015) in each administrative district. We observe in the results how economic fundamentals, changes in financial policies and implementation of government measures can influence moving average of pricing, purchase willingness, and long-term trends. We hope to provide a reliable housing trend forecast platform as a reference for the supervising administrations and homebuyers. The results of this study demonstrate the following: Despite numerous factors impacting housing prices and pricing being revised downward in Taipei on a small scale, the city has a long-term trend of increasing prices according to the analysis of this estimation platform. Changes of housing prices can be provided to the public as a reference or for the purpose of fundamental infrastructure if municipalities in the entire country register themselves to this estimation platform and submit authentic prices. Differences are found between comments in the publication by professor Zhang Jin E, showing that buying stocks is not necessarily better than purchasing real estate. Manipulation by industry peers, the so-called scholars, experts, and pundits in the media can be avoided, while preventing consumers and normal market transactions to be misled due to a lack of complete information.