Weak self-induced cooling of tropical cyclones amid fast sea surface warming
Journal
Nature Geoscience
Journal Volume
19
Journal Issue
2
Start Page
153
End Page
158
ISSN
1752-0894
1752-0908
Date Issued
2026-01-08
Author(s)
Guan, Shoude
Huang, Mengya
Cai, Wenju
Zhang, Zhengguang
Kim, Hyun-Sook
Zhou, Lei
Lin, Xiaopei
Xu, Zhao
Jin, Fei-Fei
Mei, Wei
Wang, Qian
Zhou, Chun
Meng, Ze
Tian, Jiwei
Zhao, Wei
Abstract
Sea surface temperature directly beneath tropical cyclones is crucial for their intensification. In the long term, global warming heats the surface oceans, intensifying tropical cyclones, whereas concurrently with a cyclone, inner-core surface cooling is induced by the cyclone itself curtailing its intensification. However, the magnitude of cyclone-induced cooling, or the trend in storm-local sea surface temperature, remains uncertain. Here we provide a quantification using global surface drifter data from 1992 to 2021. We find that storm-local sea surface temperatures are rising at 0.29 ± 0.07 °C per decade—about twice the average rate in tropical cyclone-active regions despite enhanced cyclone-induced cooling; furthermore, the magnitude of cyclone-induced inner-core cooling is far smaller than previous estimates. The inner-core cooling measured by drifters is −0.68 ± 0.04 °C, substantially less than microwave satellite estimates (−1.05 ± 0.06 °C). State-of-the-art climate models tend to overestimate inner-core cooling while underestimating storm intensity. These findings offer observational benchmarks for models and suggest that current projections may underestimate the strength, frequency and impacts of major tropical cyclones.
Subjects
climate modeling
cooling
drifter
global warming
satellite altimetry
sea surface temperature
storm
tropical cyclone
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Type
journal article