The Empirical Analysis of Petroleum Demand in Mainland China
Date Issued
2005
Date
2005
Author(s)
Chen, Chun-Chang
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to forecast the oil demand in China using the data of macroeconomy and understand the relation between the oil consumption and economy. Mainland China became the second country for oil consumption around the world in 2003. Not only be the materials of energy, but also be the important strategical materials. Therefore, the topic of oil demand in Mainland China is the very valuable to consider.
The models of this analysis is following：1.ARIMA models are used the annual and quarterly data to create. To calculate next ten years oil consumption separately and compare with the conclusion which be forecasted by international energy agencies. 2.Regrassion model. Using real oil price, real GDP and oil consumption create model.
3.cointegrating test and Error Correction Model. In order to include the long and short term factors, it uses the error correction method to make the equation better. 4.Granger test. The most interesting part of this topic is to find out what if the relation between the real GDP, the economic development, and oil consumption in Mainland China.
The conclusion of this research indicates the oil consumption will increase in the future whatever the speed fast or slow. According to regression model, the rising oil price will decrease the quality of oil consumption. Also, oil consumption will increased by the high personal income. However the biggest factor is the consumption last year. Finally, Granger causality test point out the oil consumption and economical development has not any causal relation in Mainland China.
Subjects
石油消費
ARIMA模型
迴歸模型
誤差修正模型
Granger因果關係
Mainland China
Oil Consumption
ARIMA model
Regression model
Cointegrating test, Error Correction Model
SDGs
Type
thesis
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Loading...
Name
ntu-94-R91341034-1.pdf
Size
23.53 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum
(MD5):1f02be1610c0857bc1d8f7950a92e4d5