The Study of Motorcycle Ownership Prediction Model
Date Issued
2005
Date
2005
Author(s)
Tsai, Chia-Chia
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Abstract
The number of mobile vehicles in Taiwan, especially motorcycles, has been increasing for many years. The trend of using motorcycles for private communication has also been discovered in many other Asian countries. Since the mixed traffic flow causes more motorcycle-related problems, the fluctuation trend of motorcycle ownership has been looked into. Furthermore, factors that affect motor vehicle ownerships and future trend of total motorcycles are important bases for government policies. For this reason, this study defines different motorcycle ownership phases according to observed trends of motor vehicles in Japan. Each phase with numbers of motorcycles and cars represents a country’s mobility and economy indexes. The recent development trend in Vietnam is found to be similar to Taiwan and requires careful attention to the rapid increase of motorcycles.
In past studies, car and motorcycle ownerships are found to be inter-replaceable. From this starting point, this study investigates on the relationship between cars and motorcycles in Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung by utilizing a simultaneous equation model. In addition, whether or not the development of public transportation will affect private transportation modes has been examined.
The results show the replaceable relationship in a household between car ownership, motorcycle ownership and the number of public transportation users in Taipei. In Taichung, household car ownership would affect household motorcycle ownership and the number of public transportation users. The number of public transportation users is affected indirectly by the number of household car licenses. Furthermore, income is not the main factor for motor vehicle ownerships. On the other hand, direct relationship between car ownership and motorcycle ownership has been discovered in Kaohsiung. However, income does not affect household car and motorcycle ownership. The simultaneous equation model has shown the indirect and direct relations between motorcycle ownership, car ownership and the number of public transportation users and has proved to have fewer errors than a Poisson model. Lastly, solving the collinear problem between factors by principal component analysis has allowed data that are collected in Taiwan be aggregated into building a car and motorcycle ownership model. Although the MAPE of the regression is fewer in errors than the simultaneous equation model, both are within satisfactory ranges in the goodness test.
Key Words：Motorcycle ownership; Car ownership; Simultaneous Equation Model
Subjects
機車持有
汽車持有
聯立方程式
Motorcycle ownership
Car ownership
Simultaneous Equation Model
Type
thesis
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