The China’s Evolving Policies Toward Taiwan: Adjusting Rhetoric Threats and Military Threats in the Three Cases of Taiwan’s Presidential Elections
Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
Li-Chiuan Hsieh
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
From Taiwan’s first democratic presidential election in 1996, and for each Taiwanese presidential election since then, China’s policies toward Taiwan have evolved dramatically. When we compare China’s Taiwan-policies right before all three of Taiwan’s democratic presidential elections so far, we find an intriguing contrast between: (a) high rhetoric threat and high military threat in 1996, (b) high rhetoric threat but low military threat in 2000, and (c) low rhetoric threat and even no military threat in 2004. To understand China’s Taiwan-policies, my research explores three aspects of those policies: the policy variations, the policy influences, and the explanatory factors for the differences in policies for the three periods.
First, I narrowed down the broad policy issue areas into two main categories, military threats and rhetoric threats. Then, I sampled, analyzed, and categorized reports from three of China’s symbolic newspapers including official, semi-official, and military newspapers during the three presidential election periods of Taiwan. Each “election period” covers a time span from eight months before to three months after the election. The categorized news reports are counted and then transformed into comparative statistical charts. The quantitative charts enable us to compare China’s policy variations more easily. In addition, I also use qualitative policy resources to complement my quantitative analysis and complete the whole study, especially when military threats and rhetoric threats virtually disappear in 2004.
Second, regarding explanatory factors, I utilize a two-level triangular framework under the realist paradigm to examine how the interactions within the China-U.S.-Taiwan triangle affect China’s policy outputs toward Taiwan, and vice versa, how China’s policy outputs toward Taiwan affect the interactions within the China-U.S.-Taiwan triangle. The triangular framework enables us to examine the external environment for the three parties and the triangular interactions, especially to compare the triangular relations before and after China’s threats toward Taiwan. By two-levels, I mean the domestic and international levels. Two-level analysis allows us not only to examine the international external factors, but also to study how the domestic factors affect the international interactions in the strategic triangle. Finally, this study attempts to explain how the international and domestic factors affect China’s policies toward Taiwan, and determine which approach is more applicable in explaining China’s Taiwan-policies, especially the utility of realism.
My conclusions are: (1) Regarding policy content, the severity of China’s threats toward Taiwan right before each of the three presidential elections show a downward trend from 1996 to 2004 because of feedback effects. However, the three post-election periods do not show such a decline. During the three presidential election campaigns, Taiwan’s domestic politics dealing with Taiwan-sovereignty issues easily trigger China’s intense reactions. China’s policies show interesting patterns, especially around Taiwan’s election days and inauguration days. Overall, China’s policies evolve over time, and the tactics become more versatile. (2) Regarding policy influences, from China’s perspective, its threats toward Taiwan in the first two elections lead not only to counterproductive results of Taiwanese voters electing the DPP candidate, but also negative impacts on the triangular-relationship and Asia-Pacific security. (3) Regarding policy input factors, several interesting points appear: (a) In the long run, China’s policies are consistent with state rationality. (b) But in the short term, China’s policies can be easily affected by internal events within Taiwan, the United States, and China, and also by the external actions of each of them. When the events and actions from the three parties strengthen the Chinese government’s ruling legitmacy, its policies tend to be more flexible. (c) There is a strong feedback function in China’s Taiwan-policies. (d) Both realist and domestic approaches have significant but different utilities in studying China ’s Taiwan-policies.
Subjects
中共對台政策
威慑
兩岸關係
總統大選
戰略三角
選舉
China’s Taiwan policy
Cross-Strait relations
Taiwan Presidential election
Strategic Triangle
China and Taiwan
military threat
Type
thesis
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