Higher temperature and urbanization affect the spatial patterns of dengue fever transmission in subtropical Taiwan
Resource
Science of The Total Environment 407 (7): 2224-2233
Journal
Science of the Total Environment
Journal Volume
407
Journal Issue
7
Pages
2224-2233
Date Issued
2009
Author(s)
Abstract
Our study conducted spatial analysis to examine how temperature and other environmental factors might affect dengue fever distributions, and to forecast areas with potential risk for dengue fever endemics with predicted climatic change in Taiwan. Geographic information system (GIS) was used to demonstrate the spatial patterns of all studied variables across 356 townships. Relationships between cumulative incidence of dengue fever, climatic and non-climatic factors were explored. Numbers of months with average temperature higher than 18 °C per year and degree of urbanization were found to be associated with increasing risk of dengue fever incidence at township level. With every 1 °C increase of monthly average temperature, the total population at risk for dengue fever transmission would increase by 1.95 times (from 3,966,173 to 7,748,267). A highly-suggested warmer trend, with a statistical model, across the Taiwan Island is predicted to result in a sizable increase in population and geographical areas at higher risk for dengue fever epidemics. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Subjects
Dengue fever; Geographic information system; Population at risk; Socioeconomic factors; Spatial analysis; Temperature; Urbanization
Other Subjects
Dengue fever; Population at risk; Socioeconomic factors; Spatial analysis; Urbanization; Climatology; Geographic information systems; Information systems; Population statistics; Risk analysis; climate change; dengue fever; disease incidence; disease transmission; GIS; risk factor; socioeconomic conditions; spatial analysis; temperature effect; urbanization; Bayes Theorem; Dengue; Geographic Information Systems; Geography; Humans; Incidence; Population Density; Population Surveillance; Risk Factors; Socioeconomic Factors; Taiwan; Temperature; Urbanization; Asia; Eurasia; Far East; Taiwan
Type
journal article
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