Building Forecasting Models of International New Products Based on Bass Diffusion Model -In case of American Movies Released in Taiwan
Date Issued
2004
Date
2004
Author(s)
Wei, Yi-En
DOI
en-US
Abstract
Product development is the key to success for a company in the modern business world. However, managers face enormous challenges when planning to develop a new product or introduce an international new product from a country who is a forerunner of the new product’s diffusion. Therefore, before setting the development and promotion strategies of a new product, the most important information companies have to find out is whether the new product has sufficient market potential, and whether it will diffuse fast enough.
Due to the limitation of unquantifiable external environmental factors, in the past, it was difficult to set up a scientific method to predict the life cycle and sales of a new product. Fortunately, with the development of Bass Diffusion Model and the application of highly efficient statistics analysis over the past years, the model is now more stable in forecasting the life cycle and sales of new products.
In this thesis, different estimation and statistics approaches will be applied to build forecasting models based on the previous research. Furthermore, introduce different factors which may influence the diffusion process of the new product into the models. By comparing different models, it is hoped to find an efficient forecasting model with greater forecasting ability and help companies in making more effective marketing strategies.
Since customers’ preference to intangible products is more difficult to be observed and measured than tangible ones, it is more difficult to forecast the diffusion as well. Therefore, American movies released in Taiwan will be taken as the subject for practically testing the forecasting models in this thesis.
Subjects
Bass擴散模型
層級貝氏統計分析模式
Hierarchical Bayesian Statistics Model
Bass Diffusion Model
Type
thesis
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