Cost-effectiveness analysis of Preventing Computer Virus Infection
Date Issued
2005
Date
2005
Author(s)
Yang, Ya-Min
DOI
en-US
Abstract
As computer virus infection prevails in the globe, to reduce pandemic transmission is of paramount importance to burden of computer users. And the installation of antivirus software (AVS) and the update of this software need considerable costs and time. Whether the benefit of reducing infection can outweigh cost incurred in purchasing AVS is worthy of being investigated.
To our knowledge, very few researches have been conducted to address this issue using the concept of infectious model as proposed by Anderson (1991). For applying the concept on Markov decision tree, we must get many parameters and do transformation, so we conducted a small questionnaire survey, then we applied Markov decision tree model to develop natural course of computer virus infection based on information obtained form empirical survey or expert opinion to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of comparing two decisions, AVS versus none, and three decisions, purchasing AVS updated at regular interval, purchasing AVS without updating, and none.
The present study used Markov decision analysis to analyze the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis for prevention of computer virus infection. For effectiveness defined by reducing loss of time using 5 hr as a unit, strategy “AVS” can gain 3.37 unit utilities (16.85 hrs) in the model, but strategy “none” can only just gain 1.36 unit utilities (6.8 hrs). Strategy “Purchasing update AVS every year” can gain 3.52 unit utilities (17.6 hrs) in the model, but strategy “No purchasing update AVS every year” can merely gain 3.29 unit utilities (16.45 hrs).
For incremental cost per infected with symptoms averted, to prevent an infected with symptom, NT$38,228 would be paid in strategy “AVS” from consumer’s viewpoint. From societal viewpoint, strategy “AVS” would dominate over “none”. From consumer’s viewpoint, to prevent an infection with symptom, NT$26,222 would be paid in strategy “purchasing update AVS every year”, but NT$108,158.33 in “not purchasing update AVS every year”.
From societal viewpoint, to prevent an infection with symptom, NT$9504.55 would be paid in strategy “none”. If effectiveness is defined by utility gained in reducing loss of time, to gain 5 hrs, NT$1,029 would be paid in strategy “AVS” from consumer’s viewpoint. From societal viewpoint, strategy “AVS” would dominate over “none”. From consumer’s viewpoint, to gain 5 hrs, NT$9,363 would be paid in strategy “Purchasing update AVS every year”, but NT$674 in “not purchasing update AVS every year”. From society viewpoint, to gain 5 hrs, NT$8,328 would be paid in strategy “Purchasing update AVS every year”, and “none” is dominated
In this analysis, purchasing update AVS every year would be most effective strategy in preventing computer virus infection. And AVS used would be most cost-effective strategy in preventing computer virus infection. And we finally successfully developed a Markov decision model underpinning the infectious disease model to evaluate effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of installing AVS (vaccination) or purchasing the updated AVS (booster). This model is very useful for policy-maker in the determination of whether AVS or regular update is necessary.
Subjects
防毒軟體
成本效益分析
馬可夫決策分析
傳染病模式
裝防毒軟體且每年更新
AVS
cost-effectiveness analysis
Markov decision analysis
infectious model
purchasing update AVS every year
SDGs
Type
thesis
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