A Study on the Evolution of China’s Economic Development Strategy
Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
Jung-Feng, Chang
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The very purpose of this dissertation is to demonstrate and to analyze the evolution of the economic development strategies of People’s Republic of China since 1949 to 2006, which started from Mao’s heavy-industry-prioritized strategy based upon political consideration, namely, nationalism, through Deng’s “Reform” and “Openness”, till contemporary economic strategy for balanced and sustainable development under Hu regime.
By introducing the econometric model developed by Soviet engineer Fel’dman, this dissertation analyzed the origin, process and logic of China’s heavy-industry-oriented strategy, which served Mao’s nationalism and statism but resulted in contradiction of comparative advantages incorporated in China’s factor endowment. Consequently, Mao’s economic strategy and its resulting disasters paved the way to Deng’s “Reform and Openness,” which, abandoning Mao’s heavy-industry-first strategy, opened China’s economy to world capitalist market, attracted foreign direct investment into China, reformed the agricultural sector, exploited massive surplus of labor forces, as well as reintroduced market mechanism into China’s economic system, in order to maneuver an “Export-Oriented” economic strategy modeled from Taiwan and South Korea. Succeeding Deng’s strategy, Jiang’s economic strategy has been characterized by “Growth for Growth,” which brought China a rare era of rapid economic growth, transforming China into the so-called “world factory,” but also sowed the seeds of economic crisis that shadows China’s economic future. All of these processes have been scrutinized in terms of comparative economic theories, highlighting econometrical evidences to prove that Deng-Jiang’s “Openness” policies had brought heavy pressure to make Chinese economy reformed inevitable.
Based upon foretold analysis, this dissertation made a systematic economic forecast of China’s economic development under the Hu regime from 2002 to 2012. The author presents a must-be list of reform for agricultural sector, urban sector, as well as some steps necessary for sustainable economic development. Without taking these reforms, the author strongly argues, China’s economy will either crash or face serious crisis. Last but not least, the author provides some strategic advises for Taiwan, hoping these advises could help his country to make right choices in front of China’s economic challenges.
Subjects
優先發展重工業、線形圖、平衡表、出口擴張、家庭承包責任制、所有制改革
heavy-industry-oriented, linear graph, Balanced Table, Export-oriented, Household responsibility system, Ownership Reform
Type
other