Chu's crisis or chance? Spatial Analysis of New Taipei City Mayoral Election in 2014
Date Issued
2016
Date
2016
Author(s)
Su, Yu-An
Abstract
In this research, spatial analysis method was used to examine the factors that determine the change of voting rate for Mr. Chu during the New Taipei City Mayoral Election in 2010 and 2014. Furthermore, the research also points out the crisis and opportunity for Mr. Chu in New Taipei City. Spatial analysis method emphasis on processing the data via visualization. By utilizing exploratory spatial data analysis as well as spatial regression, the impact of social phenomenon due to spatial factor can be proven. The analysis unit in this research is based on 1032 villages in New Taipei City. To analyze the voting rate and change of voting rate in year 2014, population structure, socio-economic backgrounds, government performance, electoral participation and spatial factors were used in the research. The research found that the election in New Taipei City will be biased in terms of interpreting result due to neighborhood effect and spatial heterogeneity, as well as, not considering the ordinary least squares regression for spatial factor. The voting rate in 2014 election was influenced by population structure and socio-economic background. The main reason for the change of voting rate was due to population structure. The performance of Mr. Chu in his term of office had minor effects on the result of the election. Furthermore, the voting rate was lower in area with more first-time voters in the 2014 election for Mr. Chu. There was fluctuation in the voting rate for area with higher income and education. The voting rate had dropped for Mr. Chu in areas with more Hakka, indigenous peoples and the third-level industry. The aforementioned were the crisis for Mr. Chu. On the contrary, areas with more public sector employees had no sign of voting change and had remained high in support for Mr. Chu. More ever, the turnout rate had dropped for KMT supporter. Hence, a drop in voting rate for Mr. Chu. The researcher believed this is due to over confidence in the election. Mr. Chu is still hopeful with an encouragement to vote in the next election.
Subjects
spatial analysis
spatial autocorrelation
spatial regression
Eric Chu
New Taipei City
election
Type
thesis
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