Modelling control measures to reduce the impact of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren
Resource
Epidemiology and Infection 136 (8): 1035-1045
Journal
Epidemiology and Infection
Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
CHEN, S.-C.
Abstract
We coupled the Wells-Riley equation and the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to quantify the impact of the combination of indoor air-based control measures of enhanced ventilation and respiratory masking in containing pandemic influenza within an elementary school. We integrated indoor environmental factors of a real elementary school and aetiological characteristics of influenza to estimate the age-specific risk of infection (P) and basic reproduction number (R0). We combined the enhanced ventilation rates of 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2/h and respiratory masking with 60%, 70%, 80%, and 95% efficacies, respectively, to predict the reducing level of R0. We also took into account the critical vaccination coverage rate among schoolchildren. Age-specific P and R0 were estimated respectively to be 0.29 and 16.90; 0.56 and 16.11; 0.59 and 12.88; 0.64 and 16.09; and 0.07 and 2.80 for five age groups 4.6, 7.8, 9.10, 11.12, and 25.45 years, indicating pre-schoolchildren have the highest transmission potential. We conclude that our integrated approach, employing the mechanism of transmission of indoor respiratory infection, population-dynamic transmission model, and the impact of infectious control programmes, is a powerful tool for risk profiling prediction of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren. ? 2007 Copyright Cambridge University Press.
SDGs
Other Subjects
influenza vaccine; air conditioning; ambient air; article; child; controlled study; environmental factor; human; infection control; infection risk; influenza; major clinical study; pandemic; population dynamics; prediction; primary school; quantitative analysis; respiratory tract infection; vaccination; virus transmission; Air Microbiology; Air Pollution, Indoor; Child; Child, Preschool; Community-Acquired Infections; Female; Humans; Influenza Vaccines; Influenza, Human; Male; Mathematics; Models, Statistical; Risk Assessment; Schools; Taiwan
Type
journal article
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