A stochastic assessment to quantify the risk of introduction of African swine fever virus to Taiwan via illegal pork products carried by international travellers
Journal
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Date Issued
2021
Author(s)
Abstract
The current study quantified the risk of releasing African swine fever virus (ASFV) into Taiwan from pork products illegally carried by international travellers from 157 countries or territories through six international airports and three international seaports. The association between various factors and the number of pork products detected by the border control authorities was also examined. The risk was estimated with a stochastic process after modelling the number of undetected illegal pork products, probability of pork product detection at international airports and seaports and probability of ASFV contamination of pork products from various countries. The overall annual probability of ASFV release to Taiwan was estimated to be 1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1–1] under no enhanced mitigation measures. All the median airport-level risks were higher than.921, and four of them reached 1. The total annual risk was.570 (95% CI:.109?.937) for international seaports. The country or territory level risk was estimated to be 1 for Vietnam, China, Hong Kong, the Philippines and South Korea,.999 (95% CI:.628–1) for Macao and.967 (95% CI:.359–1) for Indonesia. After the total number of travellers was factored in, the number of detected illegal pork products was the highest in January and February, and travellers from Vietnam [risk ratio to Japan (RR): 80.45; 95% CI: 58.68–110.3], the Philippines (RR: 37.67; 95% CI: 26.9–52.74) and Cambodia (RR: 28.39; 95% CI: 12.69–63.51) were most likely to bring pork products to Taiwan. Our study indicated a high risk of ASFV introduction through international travellers and also identified the factors associated with the risk. This information can be used as empirical evidence for cost-effective risk mitigation practices. ? 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH
Subjects
African swine fever
flight
international travel
Monte Carlo simulation
pigs
pork products
risk analysis
risk assessment
ship
Taiwan
African swine fever virus
airport
article
Cambodia
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Japan
Macao
Monte Carlo method
nonhuman
Philippines
pork
probability
South Korea
stochastic model
travel
Viet Nam
viral contamination
virus release
Type
journal article