Dynamic Infection model Associated with Herd Immunity ─ Illustrations of Poliomyelitis and Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease
Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
Lai, Chao-Chih
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Mass vaccination can protect not only the immunized individual against infection disease but also protect the un-immunized individual. The effect of indirect protection of susceptible is termed herd immunity or herd effect. Herd immunity and herd immunity affect not only the incidence of disease but also the economic analysis of vaccination program. But the effect of herd effect in the study of economic analysis about vaccine program almost was ignored in the past.
Our modified dynamic symptom model was based on not only the dynamic infectious status but also dynamic change of disease with complications. We demonstrated it with illustrations of polio and hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). The effective reproductive number (R) of polio was estimated around 1.71-24.17. The effective R of HFMD was estimated around 1.07-1.67.
If there are many uncertainties in emerging diseases like the HFMD with severe symptoms, the simple SIR model isn’t easily applied to this condition. But our modified dynamic symptoms model can easily handle this condition. The modified model is more easily applied to the dynamic economic analysis of the intervention program.
Subjects
集團免疫
動態模型
小兒麻痺
手足口病
基礎再生數
herd immunity
dynamic model
basic reproductive number
polio
hand-foot-mouth disease
SDGs
Type
thesis
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