Impact of WTO on Export and Import Amounts of Agronomy Products in Taiwan
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Li, Yueh-ming
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
After Taiwan formally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in January 1, 2002, free trade may make a great impact on domestic agriculture. We undertake statistical analyses on the changes of the export and import amount for agronomy products in recent years and attempts to investigate the effects of WTO on the agronomy products. Three types of agronomy products are considered; cereal, Chinese herbal medicine, and others including tobacco, coffee, tea, etc. Data are obtained from the public accessible website of Agricultural Trade Searching System of The Council of Agriculture, Taiwan who authorizes the Institute for Information Industry to collect the information of export and import amounts from the Custom Service, Department of Finance, Taiwan. To ensure that the latest available information, the cutoff date is set to be December 31, 2005. Therefore, 48 pairs of monthly export and import data from January of 1998 to December of 2005 are available for statistical analyses. Descriptive statistics such as mean and standard deviation are used to summarize the data. Paired t-test, Cox-Stuart test, and Intervention Model of Time Series are employed to empirically examine the impact of WTO on import and export of agronomy products in Taiwan. Results show that from January of 1998 to December of 2001, total import amount of rice is 22,751.76 metric tons and total import amount is 460,354.77 metric tons. This 20-fold increase of import of rice is statistically significant (p-value < 0.0001). In addition, the results show that WTO even causes the significant influence on the following agricultural products: other crops with statistically significant increase of import including wheaten food, malt, chip of the sandalwood, pepper, coffee, tea, tobacco products, glucose and glucose thick liquid. Agronomy products with statistically significant increase in export amount are wheat, Jilin ginseng, tea, and wine. Our analyses demonstrate that statistically significant changes in import and export occur after Taiwan joined the WTO in some of agronomy products. It is suggested that our government should set up appropriate policies in encountering this challenge.
Subjects
世界貿易組織
介入模型
Cox-Stuart檢定
配對t檢定
WTO
Agronomy products
Intervention model of time series
Cox-Stuart test
paired t test
Type
thesis