Constructing and Applying a Macroeconometric Model
Resource
經濟論文叢刊, 38(1), 001-064
Journal
經濟論文叢刊
Journal Volume
38
Journal Issue
1
Pages
001-064
Date Issued
2010-03
Date
2010-03
Author(s)
Abstract
In this paper, we develop a methodology for constructing a macro-econometric model. First we combine economic theory and time series techniques. This allows us to adapt the cointegration regression to set up the single equations. Then we use the Gauss-Seidel method to solve the simultaneous equations. We also demonstrate how to link sectors in the model and the procedure for building the model system. We begin with the simplest model and add more relations gradually. Finally, we use a macro-econometric model to analyze the economy in Taiwan, and simulate changes in the fiscal policy, crude oil price and growth rate of mainland China to do scenario analysis.
Subjects
總體計量
聯立方程式
時間數列
敏感性分析
政策模擬
macroeconometrics
simultaneous equations
time series
scenario analysis
policy simulation
Type
journal article
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