Human judgments in New York state sales and use tax forecasting
Journal
Journal of Forecasting
Journal Volume
23
Journal Issue
4
Pages
297-314
Date Issued
2004-07-20
Author(s)
Kuo-Yuan Liang
Abstract
Human judgments have become quite important in revenue forecasting processes. This paper centres on human judgments in New York state sales and use tax by examining the actual practices of information integration. Based on the social judgment theory (i.e., the lens model), a judgment analysis exercise was designed and administered to a person from each agency (the Division of the Budget, Assembly Ways and Means Committee Majority and Minority, and the Senate Finance Committee) to understand how information integration is processed among different agencies. The results of the judgment analysis exercise indicated that revenue forecasters put different weight on cues. And, in terms of relative and subjective weights, the cues were used differently, although they were presented with the same information. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Subjects
Human judgment
lens model
New York state sales and use tax forecasting
Social judgment theory
Type
journal article