Financing National Health Insurance: The Challenge of Fast Population Aging
Journal
經濟論文叢刊
Journal Volume
43
Journal Issue
2
Pages
145—182
Date Issued
2015
Author(s)
徐敏鐘
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of rapid population aging on financing a national health insurance program, as anticipated and observed in many newly industrialized countries (NICs). A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous working and saving decisions is employed to quantify the impact. Taiwan, which has been implementing its National Health Insurance (NHI) since 1995 and whose elderly population ratio will double within 20 years, is selected as an example for our analysis. Our results suggest that an additional 16 percent labor income tax will be required in 2050 if the current trend of population aging cannot be improved. Moreover, the impact of medical price inflation is also discussed. We find that the NHI would be unsustainable if the annual growth rate of real medical prices is 2 percent higher than productivity growth. Finally, the fiscal and welfare effects of deferring retirement and financing NHI through different methods are discussed.
SDGs
Type
journal article