Scenario Analysis and Dynamic Simulation of Agriculture Material Flows in Choushui River Basin
Date Issued
2005
Date
2005
Author(s)
Huang, Ping-Lun
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
River basin is an important geographic unit in nature. Through Agriculture activity, people have strong connection with river basin. Therefore, it becomes a crucial issue for environmental resource management to clarify the relationship between river basin and agriculture.
This study selects Choushui River-Basin as the research border to establish “Agricultural Resource Data Base of Choushui River-Basin.” This data base is constructed on the base of agriculture statistic data of county and town, and then used to estimate the agricultural material production of Choushui River-Basin. The study analyzes the historical trend of agricultural indicators to discuss the current agricultural situation in Choushui River-Basin and to search the problems in this region.
The research takes a dynamic simulating software “Stella” as a constructive method, which is used for analyze agricultural indicators of the historical data to find out all the pathways of material flows in Choushui River-Basin. The software is also capable of modeling future agricultural production, consumption, waste, river material import, and export.
The research results show that Choushui River-Basin is an important agricultural base in Taiwan, which produces and exports enormous amount of agricultural material each year. And farming takes the biggest part of material production and export in the whole region. Meanwhile, livestock also produces and exports lots of material out of the region, and its percentage is increasing every year, which strongly indicates a shift of production styles is ongoing in this area. On the other hand, the results also indicate Choushui River-Basin has only scarce amount of forestry and fishery production. As a result, the region still imports material to supply the short of forestry and fishery production.
Furthermore, the outcome of this study is to establish “Agricultural Resource Data Base of Choushui River-Basin” as well as a model to estimate future agricultural statistic data of this river basin. This study adapts a system dynamic model, which is based on the structure of agricultural material flows, to analyze and predict the future agricultural production, consumption, waste, material import, and export in Choushui River-Basin.
Subjects
流域管理
濁水溪流域
系統動態模式
物質流分析
Choushui River Basin
System dynamic modeling
Material Flows Analysis(MFA)
Agriculture material
River basin management
Type
thesis
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