The Projection of Disabled Population, Population with Dementia, and Care Workers in Need in Taiwan

Aims: This study uses databases and hypotheses to project the population in Taiwan who are likely toneed long-term care services in the near future (including disabled people and people with dementia), and the number of care workers required providing such services. This study also presents findings by Geographic Information System (GIS), and gives some suggestions for long-term care insurance policy-making. Methods: This study uses the prevalence method in projecting the population who will likely need long-term care services. A demand-based approach is used for the projection of the caring hours and amounts of care workers required. Results: Based on the projection of this study, there will be 347,548 people (1.49% of total population) with at least one ADL in 2011 in Taiwan. Among them, there will be 229,491 people aged 65 and above (9.00% of this sub-population). Including the population with only IADL and dementia, there will be 610,768 people (occupying 2.62% of total population) with long-term care needs in 2011 in Taiwan. In addition, the female elderly population with long term care needs exceeds the male population, and the difference between these two will keep increasing in the near future. Furthermore, based on GIS analysis, the amount of care workers will become insufficient nationwide in many areas, yet foreign care workers could serve within the long-term care system to make up this shortfall. Implications: This study gives four suggestions: (1) An increase in domestic care workers in some regions by the establishment of a long-term care services network having some incentives is necessary; (2) Construction of an integrated and comprehensive long-term care database will assist in confirming the mechanism of communication and policy-making for the different ministries affecting the long-term care field; (3) Increasing the foreign care worker involvement in the long-term care system, and implementing prevocational training regulations for them, should be addressed by articles of law related to the long-term care field, and (4) The establishment of vocational training regulations, and a license/certificate renewing mechanism for domestic/foreign care workers should be initiated immediately.