The risk analysis of long term impact to reservoir under extreme hydrologic events - Shihmen reservoir a case study
Journal
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011: Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability - Proceedings of the 2011 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress
Pages
1237-1246
Date Issued
2011
Author(s)
Abstract
Reservoirs play an essential role in Taiwan's water resources management. However, due to the impact of climate change, the suitability of Taiwan's reservoirs faces emerging challenges. One important issue for Taiwan is the reservoirs' safety. Because the extreme hydrology events happen more and more frequently, reservoirs will be having higher possibility of dam overtopping. The traditional design principle, Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), which was applied to decide the spillway capacity, is neither probable nor maximum from a realistic viewpoint. In addition, high reservoir sedimentation rate is another threat. The sedimentation significantly decreases the reservoir capacity and reduces reservoir's function of flood protection and other benefits. Neither the overtopping and sedimentation risks are deterministic mechanism. Moreover, other potential risk factors which influence reservoir's performance are also uncertain. Therefore, it is necessary to apply risk management, instead of deterministic methodology, to explore the long term impact on reservoir for better management. This study develops a theoretical framework and practical methodology for reservoir risk management. It will focus on the impact of more frequent extreme hydrological events caused by climate change and quantify different risk factors by stochastic approach. First this study will develop an analytical conceptual model. We focus on the impact of more frequent extreme hydrological events caused by climate change and quantify different risk factors by stochastic approach. First this study will develop an analytical conceptual model. Coupling physical governing relationship and economic tools, the model will derive the optimal decision condition of reservoir management. This conceptual framework is applied to Shihmen Reservoir as a case study. According to the knowledge learned from the analysis, this study will identify the potential risks of reservoir and provide appropriate suggestion for strategy and policy. © 2011 ASCE.
Subjects
Case studies; Hydrology; Reservoirs; Risk management; Taiwan
Other Subjects
Conceptual frameworks; Conceptual model; Design Principles; Deterministic mechanism; Different risk factors; Flood protection; Hydrologic events; Hydrological events; Optimal decisions; Potential risks; Probable maximum floods; Probable maximum precipitation; Reservoir capacity; Reservoir sedimentation; Shih-Men reservoir; Stochastic approach; Taiwan; Theoretical framework; Water resources management; Bearings (structural); Climate change; Flood control; Hydrology; Precipitation (meteorology); Research; Reservoir management; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk management; Sedimentation; Sediments; Stochastic systems; Sustainable development; Water resources; Reservoirs (water)
Type
conference paper