The Diffusion Model Creation of the search volume of Network Paid Novels in Mainland China
Date Issued
2014
Date
2014
Author(s)
Tang, Yuan-Yuan
Abstract
For the past 15 years,the Internet was prospering to a point that it has provided a foundation for the popularization of network literature in China. Meanwhile, a large number of network novel writers have appeared with a new revenue-making model——the so called “pay-per-word” strategy that makes more demands to the writers than the traditional pay-per-copy strategy. Most novel researches were based on the revenue of sales. However, to the writers,if they can predict the reactions of readers and the market values before their novels hit shelves,they may be able to obtain the maximum benefit by adjusting the controllable-factors such as subjects,chapters,and unit prices. The main analytical method of this research is based on Bass Diffusion Model, which is based on the hypothesis that a prospector decides to adapt innovation products is under two kinds of influences:“mass media” and “word-of mouth”. In this hypothesis, the “innovator”means the purchase behavior is influenced by mass media; on the other hand,the purchase behavior of“imitator”is influenced by word-of mouth. This study seeks to develop an effective forecasting model for network novel industry. This study focuses on weekly data of the most popular network novels on the Baidu search engine in 2013 to construct the diffusion models and investigate their accuracy. In this thesis, it introduces different factors that may influence the diffusion process of the new product into the models. By comparing different factors,it is hoped to find an efficient forecasting method,with greater forecasting ability and help network novel writers developing more profitable writing strategy.
Subjects
Bass Model
Network Literature
search engine
Type
thesis