A Self-organization algorithm for real-time flood forecast
Resource
Hydrological Processes 13(2),123-138
Journal
Hydrological Processes
Pages
123-138
Date Issued
1999-02
Date
1999-02
Author(s)
Hwang, Y. Y.
Abstract
The group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm presented by A. C. Ivakhnenko and colleagues is an heuristic self-organization method. It establishes the input–output relationship of a complex system using a multilayered perception-type structure that is similar to a feed-forward multilayer neural network. This study provides a step towards understanding and evaluating a role for GMDH in the investigation of the complex rainfall–runoff processes in a heterogeneous watershed in Taiwan. Two versions of the revised GMDH model are implemented: a stepwise regression procedure and a recursive formula. Eleven typhoon events in the Shen-cei Creek watershed, Taiwan, are used to build the model and verify its usefulness. The prediction results of the revised GMDH models and the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model are compared. Based on the criteria of forecasting precision and the rate and time of peak error, a much better performance is obtained with the revised GMDH models. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Subjects
self-organization algorithm
flood forecasting
GMDH
rainfall–runoff
stepwise regression
recursive formula
Type
journal article
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