The Transition of China’s Policy on Taiwan Between 1990 and Early 2012

Since 1949, the People''s Republic of China has been determined to resolve “the Taiwan problem” and achieve cross-strait unification. This dissertation analyzes the transitions of PRC''s policy toward Taiwan. It integrates the “power asymmetry theory” on the international structural level and the “domestic political theory” to explain the policy transitions.
Previous studies tend to focus on the differences in PRC''s policy toward Taiwan under different political leaders. My study departs from this individual-level analytical approach by accounting for structural factors, such as the international environment, domestic political dynamics, and interactions between China and Taiwan during the policy making process. I draw from the power asymmetry theory to analyze the relationships between China and Taiwan, as these two political entities have constantly held unequal power. The more powerful state, PRC, claims the sovereignty over the smaller state, R.O.C. Due to this structural reality, political support from foreign countries and relative economic power greatly affected the strategies chosen by both political entities, the larger and the smaller.
In this study, I extend the power asymmetry theory to identify four different periods (1949-1996,1997-2002, 2003-2006, 2007-2012), in which PRC’s policy toward Taiwan varied. Data analyzed include PRC’s announcements, documents, political speeches, and personal interviews. I illustrate that due to the specific combination of relative economic strength and international political support in each period, Taiwan adjusted its strategies in terms of the confrontational level. In response, the larger state, PRC, took different strategic models accordingly, including suppression/cooperation”, “annex/deterrence”, “isolation/ differentiation” and “appeasement/interest concessions”.
This study concludes that the core discourses of PRC’s policy in each period could be explained by the dynamics between PRC and Taiwan, which were shaped by the international support and domestic politics at that time. This study not only extends the asymmetry theory but also incorporates the domestic political theory. In addition to explaining the strategies adopted by the more powerful state, my study elucidates the seemingly irrational choices made by the small state, when Taiwan took a confrontational attitude even if it had less international support and economic advantage.