An Analysis of Air Temperature Change in Taiwan from 1897 to 2000
Date Issued
2004
Date
2004
Author(s)
Lay, Li-Wei
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Recently, several extreme climatic events have caused serious disasters, and the issue of climate change was gradually noticed by the authorities of the governments. The theory about the abnormal climate is the point which human activities emit a large amount of greenhouse gases which enhance the greenhouse effect of the earth. The types of climate change in different scales - macro, meso, and local – are different; it implies that the human activities in local areas may affect the climate. Many scientists have studied the issue of air temperature changes for a long time. Most of them have tried to diagnose whether the air temperature changes in the area, and then have tried to learn what reasons cause the impacts. In this thesis, the author improved the past studies, and tried to analyze the air temperature changes in Taiwan from 1897 to 2000. There were three purposes in the thesis:
1. The trends of the air temperature
The time series regression model was used to analyze trends of the air temperature in Taiwan for nearly one hundred years. The author compared the trends of the air temperature in Taiwan with those in other areas. And he compared the trends of the air temperature before the economic booming time with those in the economic booming time.
2. The periods of the air temperature
The spectral and cross-spectral analyses applying the maximum entropy method were used to analyze the air temperature.
3. The factors of the air temperature changes
The multiple regressions were used to analyze the importance of the potential factors that might affect the air temperature.
The air temperature in Taiwan is affected by both human and natural factors. The results indicate that the rural areas’ air temperature trends are similar to other areas and that the trends of air temperature are different between the pre-industrial and industrial periods. Second, most areas are affected by ENSO events, and they almost have different time lag. Furthermore, human factors increase the air temperature; however, natural factors decrease the air temperature. Finally, the most important factor that influences the mean monthly temperature, the mean monthly maximum temperature and the mean monthly minimum temperature is evaporation, but the main factor that influences the mean monthly diurnal temperature range is not a simple one.
Subjects
氣溫變化
複迴歸模型
頻譜分析
時間序列迴歸模型
最大熵法
Taiwan
air temperature change
time series regression model
maximum entropy method
spectral analysis
multiple regression model
SDGs
Type
thesis
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