Early risk stratification with simple clinical parameters for cirrhotic patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: This study aimed to identify pre-endoscopic clinical parameters independently associated with 6-week mortality and to develop a prognostic model in cirrhotic patients with acute upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding. Methods: A total of 542 consecutive admissions of 389 cirrhotic patients with acute UGI bleeding were retrospectively investigated. Pertinent clinical data obtained at the emergency department were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine risk factors for 6-week mortality and to develop a predictive model. Results: Forty-four patients (8.12%) died within 6 weeks. The 6-week mortality was independently associated with male sex, hepatocellular carcinoma, non-hepatocellular carcinoma malignancy, hypoxemia with peripheral oxygen saturation less than 95%, serum bilirubin, and prothrombin time. A predictive model consisting of these 6 simple parameters was built. The c statistic of our model was 0.84, significantly superior to that (0.71) of the model for end-stage liver disease score (P = .002). Conclusions: Simple pre-endoscopic clinical parameters are valuable for early risk stratification in cirrhotic patients with acute UGI bleeding. Our prognostic model warrants prospective validation by further studies. ? 2010 Elsevier Inc.