An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Consumers Loans and Macroeconomic Factors

There exist relationships between consumers loans and macroeconomic factors. In this paper, we divided consumers loans into long-term and short-term consumers loans and discussed the causal relationships and interactions between this two types consumers loans and macroeconomic factors. In this study, the data included long-term consumers loans, short-term consumers loans, industrial production index, price index, stock index, unemployment rate, average wage, and M2 from May 2004 to December 2010. Furthermore, we make empirical analysis by using Granger causality test, VAR model, Impulse Response Function, and variance decomposition.
The important conclusions are as following：
1. From the VAR model, the consumers confidence can be improved when the economic appreciation, it also increases the demand of the long-term and short-term consumers loans. In addition, if the average wage increases, the demand of the long-term and short-term consumers loans will decreases. And if the price index and stock index increases, the demand of the short-term consumers loans will increase. Finally, if the M2 increases, the demand of the short-term consumers loans will decrease.
2. From variance decomposition：In the short run, unemployment rate, average wage, and M2 are more powerful to affect the long-term consumers loans; the effect on the short-term consumers loans, from large to small, are average wage, M2, price index, unemployment rate, industrial production index, and stock index; In the long run, the effect on the long-term consumers loans, from large to small, are unemployment rate, average wage, stock index, M2, and price index; the effect on the short-term consumers loans, from large to small, are M2, average wage, price index, unemployment rate, stock index, and industrial production index.