A Macro-Econometric Research on Declining Birthrate and Aging Population in Taiwan
Date Issued
2011
Date
2011
Author(s)
Yang, Tzu-Hung
Abstract
In recent years, declining birthrate and aging population is the hot topics for discussion in the world. The population pyramid gradually transforms from the triangle (fewer elderly population, more young population) into the inverted triangle (more elderly population, fewer young population). Due to advanced in medical standard, the average life extension, with universal education, later marriage in general, resulting in declining fertility, accelerated aging population, so young people feel heavy economic burden increasingly. Population structure changes will impact on future economic.
The purpose of this thesis is to use statistical regression, time series approach to build a large scale macro-econometric model for Taiwan, and consider the fertility rate, gross domestic product among the health-care changes will how to impact in the overall economy.
This model starting from the demand side, as part of sample data is less, so I used similar data to substitute. In this model, I add population structure department, hoping it can accurately reflect the impact in the overall economic by changing the population structure.
This model includes 77 equations and 97 variables. The period is from the third season of 1990 to the third season of 2010, and generate the prediction of the economy from the forth season of 2010 to forth season of 2013. Finally, I conclude with how fertility and aging population will affect the overall economy, and the improvement of the model in the future.
Subjects
population pyramid
declining birthrate
aging population
population structure
Type
thesis
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