Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Journal Volume
9
Journal Issue
3
Pages
034008
Date Issued
2014
Author(s)
Abstract
Runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming is crucial, but is poorly discussed due to the limited data length and human alteration. Historical rainfall and runoff records in pristine catchments in Taiwan were investigated through trend analysis and cross temperature difference analysis. Trend analysis showed that both rainfall and runoff in the 99.9-percentile have been significantly increasing in terms of frequency and intensity over the past four decades. Cross temperature difference analysis quantified that the rainfall and runoff extremes (including the 99.0-99.9-percentiles) may increase by 69.5% and 99.8%, respectively, under a future scenario of 1 °C increase in temperature. This increase in intensity resembles the increase in intensity observed between 1971-1990 and 1991-2010. The amplified runoff response can be related to the limited catchment storage capacity being preoccupied by rainfall extremes. The quantified temperature effect on rainfall and runoff intensification can be a strong basis for designing scenarios, confirming and fusing GCMs' results. In addition, the runoff amplification should be a warning for other regions with significant rainfall intensification. Appropriate strategies are indispensable and urgently needed to maintain and protect the development of societies. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Subjects
global warming; rainfall intensification; runoff amplification; water resource management
Other Subjects
Amplification; Catchments; Global warming; Runoff; Water management; Cross temperature; Limited data; Rainfall and runoffs; Rainfall extremes; Runoff response; Storage capacity; Trend analysis; Waterresource management; Rain; catchment; climate modeling; environmental risk; extreme event; global warming; hydrological hazard; hydrological response; nature-society relations; precipitation intensity; runoff; temperature effect; trend analysis; water management; water resource; water storage; Taiwan
Type
journal article