Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Journal Volume
45
Journal Issue
1
Pages
463-470
Date Issued
2018
Author(s)
Abstract
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forces strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical-extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data and numerical forecast model ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anomalies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10–13 day limits. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Subjects
geopotential height; MJO; S2S prediction
Other Subjects
Forecasting; Weather forecasting; Atmospheric circulation; Geo-potential heights; Geopotential height anomalies; Madden-Julian oscillation; Model prediction; Prediction capability; Teleconnections; Weather prediction; Climatology; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric modeling; extratropical environment; forecasting method; geopotential; Madden-Julian oscillation; prediction; teleconnection; timescale; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
Type
journal article