Metaevaluation: a comprehensive evaluation of health indicator on real options-based maintenance scheduling and health prognostics of bearing degradation
Journal
International Journal of Production Research
Journal Volume
64
Journal Issue
8
Start Page
3184
End Page
3209
ISSN
0020-7543
1366-588X
Date Issued
2026
Author(s)
Abstract
This study focuses on improving maintenance strategies in the competitive manufacturing sector, emphasising the role of predictive maintenance (PdM) through sensor data and the creation of robust health indicators for proactive planning. The study analyzes high-frequency vibration data from aging bearings. By extracting and selecting key features, it identifies crucial time-domain and frequency-domain characteristics to develop health indicators which are used to evaluate the machinery health. To account for the linear, non-linear patterns and uncertainties in the degradation process, we propose ‘metaevaluation’ (i.e., evaluation about evaluation), a comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the health indicator, with five metrics including Monotonicity, Prognosability, Trendability, Reliability and Internal Robustness. We build metaevaluation for the time-dependent and noise-resilient health indicators, including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analyzes (ICA), and Convolutional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE). The study employs the Exponential Wiener Process (EWP) to address the complexities and uncertainties of aging equipment. Though real options framework and Monte Carlo deterioration simulation, we are able to extended operation and establish a maintenance decision considering multiple operational criteria. This method is key in pinpointing optimal maintenance time from premature scheduling based on fixed thresholds.
Subjects
Convolutional Variational Autoencoder
Health Indicator
Maintenance Scheduling
Predictive Maintenance
Real Options
Remaining Useful Life
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Type
review article