On the use of AFOSM to estimate major earthquake probabilities in Taiwan
Journal
Natural Hazards
Journal Volume
75
Journal Issue
3
Pages
2577-2587
Date Issued
2015
Author(s)
Wang J.P.; Kuo-Chen H.
Abstract
Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an earthquake empirical model subject to a model error of 0.26 Mw. The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could be as high as 64 % for a major earthquake in northern Taiwan to exceed Mw7.0, considering the length and slip rate of the Sanchiao fault are equal to 36 km and 2 ± 1 mm per year. By contrast, the other case study shows that for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan, the probability is “only” 4 % for earthquake magnitude to exceed Mw7.0, given a shorter fault length of 14 km and a larger slip rate of 6 ± 3 mm per year. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
SDGs
Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Type
journal article